Lisa's Market Minute

💰 THE SIGNAL

Every year, there's a moment when the Silicon Valley market wakes up. Buyers who spent the winter telling themselves "I'll start looking in the spring" suddenly realize the spring already started without them.

That moment is right now.

I've been watching the numbers closely this past month, and here's what stands out: we are seeing a genuine surge in buyer activity, and the market is moving faster than it did at this same point last year. In Menlo Park alone, 20 single family homes sold in February 2026, with an average of just 6 days on market and a median sale price of about $2.57M, at roughly 110% of list price. For a small city like Menlo Park, that’s a clear signal that motivated buyers are writing strong offers, fast.

So what changed?

Mortgage rates. At their recent peak, 30 year fixed rates pushed into the high 6% to 7% range nationally, but today many buyers are locking around 6% on a 30 year fixed, with some even seeing rates dip into the high 5% range depending on their profile and lender. That sounds like a small move on paper, but for a buyer financing a $2 million home, it can mean a monthly payment that finally pencils out instead of feeling out of reach. A lot of buyers have been doing that math quietly on the sidelines. Now they're coming off the sidelines.

The catch is that inventory hasn't kept pace with demand. In San Mateo County single family, months of inventory in February sat at about 1.7 months, well below the 6 month threshold that typically defines a balanced market. Menlo Park was even tighter, at roughly 1.2 months of inventory. That means more buyers are chasing fewer homes. Across much of the core Bay Area, single family homes are selling quickly; in some San Francisco neighborhoods, cleanly priced homes are going pending in roughly two weeks, and your Menlo Park data show a 6 day average for February.

Here's what that tells me: if you are a buyer, the rate relief you were waiting for has arrived, but so has your competition. And if you are a seller, the pool of motivated, qualified buyers is the largest it has been in years, with many homes still selling above asking in tight inventory markets like Menlo Park and San Mateo County.

March, April, and May are historically the most active months in Silicon Valley real estate, and this year that seasonal rhythm is amplified by improving financing options and very constrained supply. The window for both buyers and sellers is open right now. My job is to make sure you know how to use it.

FEBRUARY REPORT

San Mateo County - Market Housing Statistics
Single Family Residential | February 2026
San Mateo County Area Report

Santa Clara County - Market Housing Statistics
Single Family Residential | February 2026
Santa Clara County Area Report

🔑 IF YOU’RE BUYING 

The rate drop that buyers spent all of 2024 and 2025 hoping for has arrived. Rates are in the low 6s. That is real, meaningful relief on your monthly payment.

But here is the thing: so is every other buyer in the market right now. The window that opened for you also opened for everyone else.

My advice: get your pre-approval locked in before you fall in love with a house. Know your ceiling before you walk into an open house. And stop waiting for rates to hit 5%. By the time they do, if they do, you will be competing in an even more crowded market.

Spring is the time when multiple offer situations are most common. Being financially prepared is not just helpful right now. It is what separates the buyers who get homes from the buyers who lose them.

Call me before you start your search, not after.

🏡 IF YOU’RE SELLING

If you have been thinking about selling, I want you to hear this clearly: the next 8 to 10 weeks are likely to be one of the strongest windows you’ll see this year.

The buyer pool is deeper and more motivated than it has been in the last few years. Recent rate relief has brought a wave of buyers who were previously priced out or hesitant, and pent up demand from 2024 and 2025 is showing up in showings, open houses, and closed sales activity.

In Menlo Park, we’re already seeing the results: 20 single family homes closed in February 2026, with an average of just 6 days on market and sale prices averaging around 110% of list. That is not a fluke. That is a market responding to real demand.

My recommendation: if your home is ready or close to ready, list in March or early April. Price strategically to invite competitive interest rather than starting high and chasing the market down. The goal is to attract the right offers, not to scare buyers away.

If your home needs a little prep work, let's talk now so we can move fast.

✨ ONE THING TO WATCH NEXT MONTH

Keep your eye on mortgage rates. The question every buyer and seller is quietly asking is whether rates break below 6% before summer. If they do, the wave of new buyers entering the market could make April the single most competitive month of the year. The Fed's next moves on rate policy will be the signal to watch. I'll have that read in your April issue.

🎁 Enter the Spring Giveaway

Enter our Spring Shopping Giveaway for a chance to win Amazon gift cards and refresh your home, essentials, and favorite spaces. Courtesy of Coldwell Banker Realty, enjoy a fun seasonal chance to splurge and win.

Thinking about buying or selling a home in Silicon Valley?

Lisa M. Lum
www.CloseWithLisa.com
DRE #02005150
Mobile: +1 (650) 668-1868 | Email: [email protected]
Coldwell Banker Realty
1706 El Camino Real, Suite 220, Menlo Park, CA 94027